The “Mike Sonko Effect” encapsulates a rare and disruptive phenomenon in Kenyan politics, where an outsider, unencumbered by entrenched institutional barriers designed to filter political aspirants, rises to prominence through charisma, media savvy, and public appeal.
Mike Sonko, a flamboyant and polarizing figure, epitomized this by ascending from obscurity to become a Member of Parliament and later Nairobi Senator, deftly bypassing the systemic gatekeeping rooted in Kenya’s colonial legacy.
This legacy established a political machine that meticulously vetted and elevated only those candidates, whether in government or opposition, who aligned with the interests of the ruling elite.
Sonko’s meteoric rise, built on a carefully curated persona of philanthropy, bravado, and a “don’t-care” attitude, shattered this mold, exposing the vulnerabilities of a system designed to maintain control.
At the height of his popularity, Sonko was a cultural juggernaut. His appeal transcended traditional political pathways, resonating with a Kenyan populace that, at the time, was less ideologically discerning and more captivated by spectacle, bling, and media hype.
Young Mike Sonko who captured the imagination of the youth through his dressing and cavalier attitude
This public susceptibility to charisma over substance was a critical factor in his rise. Had Sonko opted to forego the Nairobi gubernatorial race in 2017 and instead pursued a second senatorial term, his momentum could have positioned him as a serious presidential contender.
His persona, amplified by mainstream media, thrived in an era when Kenyans prioritized visibility, scandals, and flamboyance over policy depth, intellectual rigor, or governance track records.
This psychological vulnerability, where voters were swayed by emotional appeal and media-driven narratives, became a focal point for the establishment’s subsequent efforts to prevent another Sonko-like disruptor.
Systemic Response: Media Gatekeeping and Psychological Manipulation
The emergence of Mike Sonko sent shockwaves through Kenya’s political establishment, prompting a calculated response to ensure no similar figure could rise from the ashes like a proverbial phoenix. The primary tactic was media gatekeeping, a sophisticated form of narrative control designed to manipulate public perception and limit the rise of unvetted political figures.
Orchestrated by the National Intelligence Service (NIS), this strategy involved capturing major media houses to create echo chambers that recycled the same pre-approved faces and narratives. By controlling the airwaves, the system exploited the availability heuristic, a psychological principle where repeated exposure to specific individuals or ideas shapes public perception of their legitimacy and viability.
Media outlets became conveyor belts for establishment-sanctioned politicians, stifling diversity of thought and ensuring that only those who played by the rules gained prominence.
This gatekeeping was particularly evident in regions like Mount Kenya, where media outlets such as Kameme and Inooro positioned themselves as gatekeepers of political discourse. These stations, catering to a low-information voter base, required bribes from aspiring politicians to secure airtime, creating a pay-to-play system that favored entrenched figures. A case in point is Thika, where MP Alice Nganga and MCA Kentams secured victories in 2022 after losing in 2017, leveraging their access to these media platforms which created a recycling effect.
THUGS: Kameme and Inooro engineered the re-election of these thugs (Alice Nganga, Kenyans, Njiru) through gate-keeping and blocking alternative voices
Their success was less about grassroots support or ideological appeal and more about the system’s ability to amplify their visibility through controlled channels, reinforcing the establishment’s grip on the electorate’s psyche.
The establishment’s tactics extended beyond traditional media to include popular radio and television programs designed to manufacture fame while maintaining control.
Shows like The Trend on NTV, JKL Live on Citizen TV, Sunday Night Live on Citizen TV with Julie Gichuru and Massawe Jappani on Radio Jambo were funded or influenced by the NIS to promote state-approved personalities, often presented as “street legends” or relatable figures to give the illusion of diversity. These programs employed social proof, a psychological tactic where the public is led to believe that certain individuals are popular or influential because they are prominently featured.
By curating these figures, the system ensured that even seemingly organic voices were aligned with its agenda, neutralizing the threat of genuine outsiders.
The Social Media Frontier: Co-opting Digital Fame
As social media emerged as a powerful platform for public discourse, the establishment recognized its potential to amplify unfiltered voices and disrupt their narrative monopoly. Initially, social media algorithms were structured to mirror mainstream media, requiring significant traditional media exposure to gain traction online. This created a feedback loop where only those already anointed by legacy media could dominate digital spaces, reinforcing the system’s control.
The psychological tactic here was scarcity of access, where visibility was a tightly controlled privilege, discouraging independent voices from breaking through without establishment backing.
Aspiring influencers and politicians, desperate to bypass these barriers, resorted to sensational tactics to capture attention. Figures like Eric Omondi and Bahati, for instance, employed cross-dressing and other gimmicks to garner traction, highlighting the lengths to which individuals had to go to pierce the system’s gatekeeping.
To attain virality, influencers had to do outlandish things like cross-dress, manufacture disputes with spouses and drama at public events
These acts were not merely creative expressions but desperate attempts to exploit the public’s novelty-seeking behavior, where unusual or provocative content could momentarily disrupt the algorithmic chokehold and attract attention.
The Liberalization of Algorithms and the Establishment’s Panic
The establishment’s carefully constructed control began to unravel with the liberalization of social media algorithms, which democratized access to visibility and relegated legacy media to near irrelevance. For the first time, individuals could achieve significant traction without mainstream media backing, directly challenging the system’s ability to dictate political narratives.
This shift empowered a new wave of voices, bloggers, influencers, and independent activists, who could amass followings comparable to those of establishment figures, effectively bypassing the gatekeeping mechanisms that once ensured compliance.
This unexpected disruption triggered a profound loss of control for the establishment, which had relied on predictable political transitions orchestrated through media manipulation. The psychological impact on the system was one of uncertainty avoidance, a deep-seated fear of losing the ability to shape public opinion and political outcomes.
The crackdown on those who gamed the new algorithms, achieving visibility akin to that once reserved for mainstream media’s chosen few, reflects the establishment’s desperation to regain control.
These digital disruptors, much like Sonko in his prime, represent a direct threat to the system’s ability to curate the political landscape.
Broader Implications: A Shifting Political Psyche
The Mike Sonko Effect and its aftermath reveal a broader evolution in Kenya’s political psyche. The public, once swayed by hype and spectacle, has grown increasingly discerning, thanks to the democratizing power of social media. Platforms like X have become arenas for unfiltered discourse, where ideas and candidates can gain traction without establishment approval.
This shift has reduced the efficacy of traditional psychological tactics like social proof and availability heuristics, as voters are exposed to a broader range of voices and perspectives.
The establishment’s response, cracking down on digital disruptors and attempting to reassert control through censorship or co-optation, suggests a lingering reliance on fear-based control mechanisms. By targeting those who achieve organic fame, the system betrays its anxiety about a public no longer confined to its narrative.
Francis Gaitho’s multiple arrests and court cases tied to tweets is NIS’s cowardly way of attempting to tame the virality of individuals un-aligned to state or status-quo narratives
This tension underscores a critical turning point in Kenyan politics: the establishment’s grip is weakening, but its resistance to change remains fierce. The liberalization of digital platforms has also exposed the limitations of legacy media, which once served as the sole arbiters of political relevance.
As Kenyans increasingly turn to social media for information and discourse, the traditional media’s role as a gatekeeper is diminishing, forcing the establishment to confront a new reality where its influence is no longer absolute.
The Psychological Underpinnings of Control and Resistance
The establishment’s tactics, from media gatekeeping to co-opting social media, rely on exploiting psychological vulnerabilities in the public. The availability heuristic ensured that only establishment-approved figures dominated public consciousness, while social proof manufactured the illusion of popularity for curated personalities.
The scarcity of access to visibility created a controlled environment where only those who complied with the system could thrive. However, the liberalization of algorithms disrupted these mechanisms, tapping into the public’s need for autonomy and desire for authentic, unfiltered voices.
The establishment’s panic in response to this shift reflects a deeper psychological conflict: the tension between control and adaptability. By clinging to outdated tactics, the system risks alienating a public that is increasingly empowered to question and challenge its authority.
The crackdown on digital disruptors, while an attempt to reassert control, may inadvertently fuel public resentment, further eroding the establishment’s legitimacy. This dynamic mirrors the reactance theory, where attempts to restrict freedom provoke resistance, as seen in the growing influence of independent voices on platforms like X.
The NIS’s Resuscitation Efforts: Manufacturing Consent Through Curated Media
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) is attempting to revive its faltering strategy of narrative control by leveraging new media platforms like NTV’s Fixing The Nation and Yvonne Okwara’s The Explainer to reassert influence over Kenya’s political discourse. These shows, while presented as platforms for critical analysis and public engagement, predominantly feature guests who are establishment stalwarts, carefully selected to regurgitate state-sanctioned narratives.
Yvonne Okwara’s show has platformed exactly those figures cited as establishment stalwarts since it began
These narratives often frame issues like WanTam or elections as manufactured panacea for deep-seated institutional and structural malaise, deflecting attention from systemic failures.
By curating these discussions, the NIS exploits the illusion of debate, a psychological tactic that creates a veneer of open discourse while ensuring that only pre-approved perspectives, aligned with the establishment’s agenda, dominate.
This approach aims to recapture the public’s trust in legacy media, countering the rise of independent voices on social media and re-establishing control over a political narrative increasingly shaped by a skeptical and empowered populace.
Conclusion: A Phoenix Still Rising?
The Mike Sonko Effect serves as a case study in how individual charisma and media manipulation can disrupt entrenched political systems, as well as how those systems adapt to prevent future disruptions.
By employing psychological tactics like media gatekeeping, social proof, and scarcity of access, the establishment sought to maintain control over Kenya’s political narrative. However, the liberalization of social media algorithms has upended this dynamic, empowering a new generation of voices and exposing the system’s vulnerabilities.
For the first time, the political establishment is grappling with a public that is less predictable and more empowered, capable of elevating outsiders without the blessing of legacy pommes or state intelligence. This shift has left the system “scared shitless,” as it confronts a future where its ability to orchestrate political transitions is no longer guaranteed.
The Mike Sonko Effect, once a singular anomaly, now heralds a broader transformation, one where the phoenix of public agency continues to rise, challenging the old guard to adapt or be left behind.
As Kenya’s political landscape evolves, the battle for narrative control will increasingly hinge on the establishment’s ability to navigate this new, decentralized reality, where the public’s voice, amplified by digital platforms, is becoming an unstoppable force.
